Estimates are a constant struggle; we've used all kinds of confidence levels that would multiply our original story points by 50%, 75%, 100% based on how confident we were with the points we assigned.
I'm more like the guy who thinks in Spikes. I take a day, try to figure out, create a small MVP, and get some solid proof. Doesn't always work, but this is my preferred way of estimating further.
We follow a similar approach, and I believe it’s the most effective way.
We provide two numbers: our estimate and our level of confidence.
The final output is simply their multiplication, which gives a range between optimistic and pessimistic outcomes.
I.e this task will take between 1-2d to be executed.
If the confidence level is particularly low, that’s a clear sign that we need a spike to reduce uncertainty — this is far better than inflating a single estimate just to “play it safe.”
Having two data points is always better than one. When you rely on a single number, you tend to overestimate the unknown to protect yourself and avoid future delays — but in doing so, the real uncertainty remains unaddressed.
Estimates are a constant struggle; we've used all kinds of confidence levels that would multiply our original story points by 50%, 75%, 100% based on how confident we were with the points we assigned.
I'm more like the guy who thinks in Spikes. I take a day, try to figure out, create a small MVP, and get some solid proof. Doesn't always work, but this is my preferred way of estimating further.
We follow a similar approach, and I believe it’s the most effective way.
We provide two numbers: our estimate and our level of confidence.
The final output is simply their multiplication, which gives a range between optimistic and pessimistic outcomes.
I.e this task will take between 1-2d to be executed.
If the confidence level is particularly low, that’s a clear sign that we need a spike to reduce uncertainty — this is far better than inflating a single estimate just to “play it safe.”
Having two data points is always better than one. When you rely on a single number, you tend to overestimate the unknown to protect yourself and avoid future delays — but in doing so, the real uncertainty remains unaddressed.
Thank you so much Franco Fernando for this article
++ Good Post, Also, start here Compilation of 100+ Most Asked System Design, ML System Design Case Studies and LLM System Design
https://open.substack.com/pub/naina0405/p/important-compilation-of-most-asked?r=14q3sp&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false